Quality Can Help Put the Odds in Your Favor

Let’s start this week’s commentary with a hypothetical scenario: A person you trust says they have two stock picks for you. Both stocks are expected to rise in price. The charts for each stock are showing similar formations and the recent news seems equally positive. You only have enough available cash to buy one of…

 

It’s Almost May – Should You Stay With Stocks or Go?

With May starting in just a few days, those of you who are sensitive to the market’s semiannual cycles may be reciting the chorus of The Clash’s 1982 hit, “Should I Stay or Should I Go?” A better question would be “Should I Stay or Should I Rotate?” Staying would mean not making any changes…

 

Steps to Take When Your Stock’s Price Falls

This week’s AAII Weekly Digest highlights these “must-read” AAII articles:   Stocks With Attractive Accrual Ratios While most investors focus on earnings to measure profitability and company success, it can be insightful to see whether cash flow generation corresponds with earnings. Earnings are calculated under the principles of accrual accounting, while cash flow measures the…

 

The Top AAII Stock Screen for 2016

This week’s AAII Weekly Digest highlights these “must-read” AAII articles:   Deep Value Investing Has Not Gone Out of Style Benjamin Graham first outlined his approach to deep-value investing nearly 60 years ago. Updated research revisits Graham’s approach to see whether it can still stand up in the era of quantitative screens and increasing sophistication…

 

AAII Stock Screens Update: Wanger Revised Screen Gains 2.6% During September

The October AAII Stock Screens Update is now available online. Featured Screen: The Wanger–Revised Approach Ralph Wanger, the founder of Wanger Asset Management and the former manager of the Acorn Fund (now the Columbia Acorn Fund), is a consistent promoter of small-stock investing. His investing style of holding small companies with financial strength, entrepreneurial managers, and…

 

Do You Need Growth for Successful Stock Picking?

A new stock screen I created omits one characteristic that may surprise some (or perhaps many) of you: growth. Nothing in the screen requires a passing company to be growing revenues or profits. It is an admitted deviation from how I’ve previously looked for stocks. I’m not alone in omitting growth. The four AAII Stock…

 

The Impact Returns Have on How Much You Should Save

One of the fuzzier numbers in retirement planning is how much a person should save. Put another way, how much does an individual need to set aside each year to fund retirement expenses? It’s a function of projected expenditures, sources of other income (e.g., Social Security, inheritance, etc.) and expected investment returns. Though they are…

 

How AAII Builds and Presents Stock Screens

Year to date, the Oberweis Octagon screen leads all approaches tracked by AAII, up 42.9% through the end of July. Such a high return is very tempting when the market is up only 6.3% over the same period. But blindly chasing high returns without understanding the drivers and characteristics of a given approach is often…

 

Observations About Investing in a Low-Volume Stock

A few months ago, I bought a low-volume stock, Oregon-based Willamette Valley Vineyards (WVVI). I had seen the company’s name on a screen of liquor stocks I occasionally run and was prompted to take a closer look when the company sent us a prospectus for a preferred stock offering. (I think my wife put us…

 

How Impactful Are Changes in Analyst Ratings?

Before you give into any temptation to follow analysts’ recommendations, consider this conclusion from three researchers: “On average, analysts’ revisions are not highly correlated with subsequent long-run returns, indicating that analysts do not provide new information that is relevant for the long run for typical investors.” The finding is from an appropriately named paper published…