Earnings Estimates’ Effect on Stock Prices

One of the most-discussed stock screens on the AAII discussion boards is Estimate Revisions: Up 5%. The screen seeks out companies with a one-month increase in the consensus earnings estimate for the current year of 5% or more. A post about the screen currently has 86 responses. Earnings estimates are forecasts made by analysts about how…

 

Do You Need Growth for Successful Stock Picking?

A new stock screen I created omits one characteristic that may surprise some (or perhaps many) of you: growth. Nothing in the screen requires a passing company to be growing revenues or profits. It is an admitted deviation from how I’ve previously looked for stocks. I’m not alone in omitting growth. The four AAII Stock…

 

Taking on Risk and Hoping the Strategy Doesn’t Backfire

Oh boy. There’s something new to be filed under the category of, “Well, it seemed like a good idea at the time.” It is cash secured puts on the S&P 500. According to The Wall Street Journal, pension funds in Hawaii and South Carolina are using the strategy to generate income. It is a strategy…

 

What is the Most Tax-Efficient Investment?

An AAII member recently asked, “What is the most tax-efficient investment?” Before you answer, stop and give the question some thought. The answer is not as straightforward as it may seem. A few factors influence the tax efficiency of investing. One, of course, is the type of investment. Municipal bonds receive very favorable tax treatment,…

 

How Impactful Are Changes in Analyst Ratings?

Before you give into any temptation to follow analysts’ recommendations, consider this conclusion from three researchers: “On average, analysts’ revisions are not highly correlated with subsequent long-run returns, indicating that analysts do not provide new information that is relevant for the long run for typical investors.” The finding is from an appropriately named paper published…

 

Two Traits that Give Active Mutual Funds an Edge

American Funds says that some actively managed funds are better than passive (index) funds. Specifically, the company argues that actively managed funds with low expense ratios and high levels of manager ownership (a group that Amercian Funds calls “Select Active”) outperform their index peers. The outperformance is evident over one-, three-, five-, and 10-year rolling…

 

Where the NASDAQ Is Less Likely to Close At

Call up a one-year chart of the NASDAQ Composite index and you’ll notice a line of support and resistance around 4,900. Extend the chart to cover three years, and a second support/resistance line appears at approximately 4,600. Those support/resistance areas may not be not completely attributable to randomness. The authors of a manuscript accepted by…

 

Coping With the Frustrating Market

Mr. Market started 2016 on the wrong foot, and his mood has gotten worse throughout this month. Barring a big rebound next week, this will be the third consecutive year the S&P 500 has declined in January—something that has only happened two other times since 1950. The index may also come close to breaking, or…

 

FINRA’s Proposal to Halt Elder Fraud: Stop Withdrawals

The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA) released a new proposal to protect seniors from financial fraud. The rules will allow financial companies to respond to situations in which there is a reasonable belief that financial fraud is occurring. If fully implemented, financial firms would be able to place a hold on the dispersal of funds…