Sentiment Supports the Borrowing of 2017 Gains Argument

Support for the concept of the post-election (“Trump”) rally borrowing gains from 2017 can be found in our Sentiment Survey. Optimism was both unusually low (a bullish sign) and unusually high (a bearish sign) in recent weeks. Though seemingly contradictory, the two signals may not be when the post-election rally is taken into account. I’ll…

 

Market Movement’s Impact on Portfolio Rebalancing

Sometimes, the market does the hard work for you. Such is the case with my 403(b) account, which is similar to a 401(k) account. Over the weekend, I looked at it for the first time in six months. I could have easily skipped doing so because Mr. Market took care of things for me. There…

 

Too Much Confidence Is Bad for Your Portfolio

Higher levels of confidence about one’s ability to invest lead to worse returns. I realize that this may seem counterintuitive to some of you, but this is the conclusion of a study accepted by the Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance (an earlier version of the study is available on SSRN). It’s yet another example of…

 

The Impact Returns Have on How Much You Should Save

One of the fuzzier numbers in retirement planning is how much a person should save. Put another way, how much does an individual need to set aside each year to fund retirement expenses? It’s a function of projected expenditures, sources of other income (e.g., Social Security, inheritance, etc.) and expected investment returns. Though they are…

 

Valuing Stocks Based on Their Dividend

The subject of valuing stocks by their dividend is discussed in the June AAII Journal, which was posted to our website yesterday. Specifically, Computerized Investing editor Jaclyn McClellan takes an in-depth look at Geraldine Weiss’ approach. I’m going to extend the conversation by discussing Weiss’ and other dividend valuation strategies. Weiss used a relative valuation…

 

Don’t Be Quick to Sell (or Rotate) in May

This week marks the start of what the Stock Trader’s Almanac refers to as the “worst six months” for the stock market. Relative to the “best six months,” stocks historically underperform during the period of May through October. Underperformance, however, should not be confused with losing money. Sam Stovall, the U.S. equity strategist at S&P…

 

Planning for the Financial Impact of Alzheimer’s and Dementia

Though the impact of Alzheimer’s disease on families and friends from a lifestyle and emotional standpoint has been well-documented, little research has been done into the financial impact of caring for some afflicted by the disease. To determine the impact, the Alzheimer’s Association conducted a nationwide survey. The results are discussed in the association’s 2016…

 

A Gold Fund’s Debacle Highlights Risks

Any time a fund invests in something more esoteric than exchange-listed stocks from a developed country or widely traded high-quality bonds, the potential for something to go wrong increases. We saw this happen in December when the Third Avenue Focused Credit Fund—a mutual fund—suddenly shut its doors in response to junk bond losses. Last week…

 

Simple Guidelines for Calculating Price Targets

An AAII member called last week asking for guidance on how to create price targets. Though very much a fair question to ask, it is not a question that’s very easy to answer. Do a search on Google for “how to determine a stock’s target price” and you’ll get 151,000 results. You have a better…