It’s Not Just the Fed’s Balance Sheet That’s Changing

Two special notes before I start this week’s commentary. First, L’Shanah Tovah to those of you celebrating Rosh Hashanah. Second, though our Investor Conference is getting close to selling out, there is still time to register. You will want to hurry because late fee pricing will go into effect on Monday, September 25. The event…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Neutral Sentiment Rebounds Modestly

The percentage of individual investors describing their outlook as “neutral” rebounded modestly in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey. Optimism pulled back, while pessimism rose slightly. This week’s changes brought the levels of all three indicators close together. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, declined by 2.4 percentage points…

 

AAII Sentiment Survey: Pessimism Surges

Pessimism in the latest AAII Sentiment Survey surged to its highest level since mid-May, as neutral sentiment plunged to nearly a four-month low. Optimism rebounded modestly. Bullish sentiment, expectations that stock prices will rise over the next six months, rebounded by 1.7 percentage points to 36.1%. Optimism was last higher on May 3, 2017 (38.1%)….

 

Over 4 in 10 Respondents Dissatisfied With Federal Reserve Communications

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members for their opinion about how clearly the Federal Reserve is communicating its monetary policy intentions. More than four out of every 10 respondents (44%) are not satisfied with the Fed’s communication about monetary policy. These respondents described it as being unclear, poor, inconsistent or needing improvement. …

 

Half of Surveyed Investors Believe Valuations Too High

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members what their comfort level is with the current valuations of stocks. Slightly more than half of all respondents (51%) described valuations as being too high. Among the reasons cited were insufficient earnings growth to support the valuations, slow economic growth, and current valuations being higher than…

 

Overwhelming Number of Individual Investors Think Federal Reserve Has Too Much Power

Last week’s AAII special question asked how much power individual investors feel the Federal Reserve has over boosting the U.S. economy and the stock market. In all, 439 members responded. Among those that addressed whether the Federal Reserve has too much or too little power (75 in all), an overwhelming percentage–97.3%–feel that the Fed has too…

 

Lessons Learned From Many Years of Investing

This week’s AAII Weekly Features highlight these valuable AAII articles: Lessons Learned From Many Years of Investing: Doing the math, having a good understanding of market and economic history and paying attention to valuations are key to long-term investing success. Follow the Fed, but Be Smart About It: Small-cap stocks thrive during periods of expansive…

 

Market Factors Making Bigger Impact on Outlook Than Fiscal Matters

This week’s Sentiment Survey special question asked AAII members if a market-related factor or if a fiscal policy-related matter has a greater impact on their six-month outlook for stocks. Nearly two-thirds of respondents (64%) said market-related factors, particularly citing monetary policy, earnings and valuations. Less than a third of respondents (31%) said that a fiscal…